Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 21.782835 23.656746 25.674519 28.018446 30.678630 33.618447 37.133109
2025-12-21 19.265911 21.933638 25.010296 28.862290 33.615549 39.370071 46.992753
2025-12-28 16.964964 19.994649 23.672933 28.554499 35.001352 43.435840 55.688161
2026-01-04 15.371042 18.626396 22.747496 28.491030 36.537496 47.831166 65.744449
2026-01-11 14.272415 17.709540 22.220773 28.786734 38.495375 53.061630 78.281012
2026-01-18 13.227179 16.726609 21.455810 28.590526 39.635322 57.207067 90.187258
2026-01-25 12.361678 15.888697 20.777469 28.390533 40.675111 61.317894 103.231510
2026-02-01 11.671650 15.223731 20.261999 28.341452 41.900209 65.929551 118.777653
2026-02-08 11.040613 14.584998 19.714452 28.156786 42.836001 70.169867 135.128625
2026-02-15 10.475124 13.994927 19.181042 27.919816 43.619254 74.251959 152.826947
2026-02-22 9.973936 13.462160 18.686475 27.682792 44.348238 78.360756 172.541935
2026-03-01 9.551852 13.018286 18.291766 27.565461 45.270613 83.078073 196.527399
2026-03-08 9.128148 12.554219 17.843396 27.332108 45.982610 87.630473 223.415403
2026-03-15 8.974329 12.496948 18.046294 28.282835 49.253177 99.250050 284.613444
2026-03-22 8.607311 12.081672 17.626842 28.043340 49.977572 104.669764 327.289401
2026-03-29 8.307284 11.755401 17.332563 28.007758 51.144586 111.681560 385.596781
2026-04-05 8.087906 11.545705 17.220190 28.308127 53.126190 121.751215 475.117047
2026-04-12 7.805851 11.217878 16.879862 28.121690 53.929979 128.549954 558.036191
2026-04-19 7.543380 10.908854 16.552306 27.928590 54.689446 135.536072 658.283918
2026-04-26 7.321103 10.655606 16.307577 27.881633 55.813339 144.279004 798.184372
2026-05-03 7.094365 10.383935 16.012805 27.701639 56.566978 152.054982 957.647211
2026-05-10 6.874947 10.114761 15.706885 27.470275 57.151708 159.511316 1148.618796
2026-05-17 6.668972 9.859678 15.412664 27.238730 57.705493 167.181638 1389.274865